Tag Archives: swing state

March 6, 2013

10 Saddest States all Republican?

As you may have heard, I am getting a degree in well-being, the psychology of optimal human flourishing, and all that jazz. So I found myself perusing Gallups new data on well-being which compares the 50 states. Each receives a score averaging six categories: life evaluation, emotional health, physical health, healthy behavior, work environment, and basic access—a reasonably holistic assessment methinks.

As I perused the state rankings, I found myself thinking about red and blue states, and correlating political affiliation with these well-being numbers. So I downloaded the data, color coded the states according to how they voted in the 2012 presidential election (blue democrat/red republican), and then took a look at the swing states according to Politico. Some items are worth sharing.

First, of the 10 happiest states, seven are democratic states and three are Republican. However, if we take out the swing states, it is five and five. Which tells us little it seems.

The states in the middle seem fairly mixed, there are just more Democratic ones (these days).

Rhode Island is striking for being a solidly blue state so low on the list. Its geographical neighbors are much higher, and the other blue states near it on the list (Nevada, Michigan, and Florida) are in truth pretty nominally blue.

It is also worth noting that Hawaii is not just on top, but 1.4 points away from #2. Likewise, West Virginia is not just at the bottom of the pile, it is, somewhat strangely, also a full 1.4 points away from #49. This is huge: all 48 other states are packed into a band from 62.7 to 69.7; only a 7-point range. West Virginia and Hawaii are major outliers.

Finally, by far the biggest takeaway here is the mass of red at the bottom. Of the 10 saddest states in the union, 9 are Republican. In fact, these states might be appropriately described as “uber” Republican. The only democratic state is Ohio, which is very much a swing state. If we take out all the swing states, all 10 slots at the bottom of the well-being pile go Republican. However, 8 of these 10 are also southern states, which means this might be a regional thing over and above a Republican thing.

So what do we make of this? Is there a correlation between one’s political views and subjective well-being?

I am not sure, but I spent some time this afternoon thinking about it. Here is the same Gallup well-being data from a geographic perspective:

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being index score is an average of six sub-indexes, which individually examine life evaluation, emotional health, physical health, healthy behavior, work environment, and basic access.

I noticed that having “very religious” people seemed to correlate negatively with well-being (the more religious people in your state, the less happy our state is). Of course, there are marked exceptions, especially Utah. Also, West Virginia is not the most religious, nor is Hawaii the least; religion is not super relevant.

The percentage of state residents who say religion is important in their lives and say they attend church weekly or nearly weekly

I also looked at a number of other factors. Underemployment did not seem to correlate at all, neither did hiring rates, or firing rates. Economic outlook did seem to correlate a bit, except for the incredibly obvious exception of Wyoming.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on state residents’ views of economic conditions in this country today, and whether they think economic conditions in the country are getting better or getting worse.

So, after this afternoon’s intellectual adventure, I do not have an answer for you: I do not know why the 10 saddest states in the Union are all Republican. I set up a question, I explored it, I brought you to the stream to drink, and the stream is dry. What a cruel thing to do!

I wanted to still post this not only to point out an interesting data point I observed (the 10 saddest states are Republican), but also to say that I do not have all the answers and continually look for them. I think that is why many of you read my blog; my mind is not made up and I do my best to treat the data honestly. I am constantly playing with live fire because I really do believe I can change my mind at any point as I go about learning more about the world. Which means you can change my mind too. A malleable worldview makes intellectual adventures more fun.

In other news, I just finished a Yale lecture series on the Ancient Greeks and am now working through another Yale series on the American Civil War. I want to post on my masters thesis topic, a speech I want Obama to give, and also my buddy Whit has one more post on gun control. Looking forward to reporting on these ongoing intellectual adventures! Thanks for reading everyone. You rock!

11 Comments | tags: gallup well-being, Hawaii, Michigan, Ohio, Politico, politics, Red states and blue states, Republicans, Rhode Island, swing state, United States, West Virginia | posted in Politics

August 10, 2012

Boardwalk, Park Place, & Veepstakes

By Jer Clifton

According to Politco’s swing state map, if the general election was held today, Obama would win a whopping 332 to 206 in the electoral college. If somehow Obama loses all the states where he is currently winning by 4.5 or less points (Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire) he would still win 271 to 267. So I do not understand all the hubbub about Obama being super weak.

Of course, while everything can change, some changes are less likely than they might usually be. For example, it is unlikely that some damaging piece of Obama’s bio comes out. And though we cannot rule out a major disaster, those unite the country behind its president as often as not. Also, a series of major gaffes by a typically disciplined Obama is not likely either.

So the economy, already a major factor no matter what, is likely the whole ball game, and we simply do not know what it will do. Also, as I argued earlier in Political Jedi Master , the economy is the only leverage point with which anyone can beat Obama, and Romney, despite obvious flaws, is best suited to maximize that leverage.

So, with his back up against the electoral wall, what running mate should Romney pick?

I grew up playing monopoly and probably kept playing past the age when normal people stop. One of the strategies adult-Jer learned seems relevant:

When it is down to the final two players, when you have hardly have any money left and your opponent has the majority of properties with plenty of houses and hotels, it is tempting to slowly sell houses evenly and keep enough money so that you can withstand a hit or two. Of course, when it is neck and neck, this strategy makes sense: avoid unnecessary risks. But, when your back is up against the wall, playing it safe will lead slowly, but inevitably, to defeat. Instead, sell and mortgage everything, even if you do not immediately need to, except for Boardwalk and Park Place and put all your money into building hotels. Even if you get lucky on your own rolls, if your opponent does not land on Boardwalk or Park Place, you will lose; if your opponent lands on them, but they are not super expensive, you will also lose. The only way you win is if you get some luck and you were ready to capitalize on it by making Boardwalk and Park Place a mortal hit.

(I won using this strategy several times. My brother would complain that it was dumb luck. I would say it was luck…and clever cleverness.)

Romney’s Boardwalk and Park place is the economy; in order for him to win he has to get lucky (the economy has to decline) and he has capitalize on it when it does. Rounding himself out by picking Condeleeza Rice for foreign policy, African Americans, and women, or Marco Rubio for the Latino vote, Florida, and a compelling biography, is like hedging his bets by keeping houses or hotels on other properties. Instead, he needs to commit to the only winning strategy that exists for him: the economy is in decline and though he might not have an incredible personal story, snazzy oratorical skills, or middle-class roots, he is supremely competent. He is Mr. Fix-it #1 and captain of the the Varsity Mr. Fix-it team.

For that reason, I think Romney should pick a former governor (executive experience) with a job creation record, a business record, and a Washington outsider, and they must have a persona of no frills, getting things done; they must exude competence like crazy. I am thinking Tim Pawlenty or someone similar (Jon Huntsman cannot because “I’m a Mormon from Utah too!”). I am sure there are other good names out there. Maybe perusing through their bios and picking one will be another post.

Also, unlike Mccains pick of Palin, Romney needs to make a pick that reflects his main argument against Obama, “Obama is not uber-competent on the economy like me.” (Mccain picked Palin under the banner, “Country First.” No matter what you think of Palin, you have to admit that there were other candidates much more qualified to be President, and Mccain did not reinforce his case with his VP pick.)

So I am excited to see who Romney picks as VP. Maybe it will make my list of brilliant political plays and Romney will prove himself the ultimate political Jedi Master…or maybe he will not pass go and not collect 200.

Either way, I can’t wait! This is history happening in front of our faces!

Incredible discussion going on regarding gun control. I will post more on that soon. Thanks for your comments!

4 Comments | tags: Boardwalk, Condoleeza Rice, Florida, intellectual football, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney, Monopoly, New Hampshire, Obama, Park Place, political Jedi Master, presidential race, strategy, swing state, Tim Pawlenty, Veepstakes, VP | posted in Politics